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Trump as Negotiator: On the Uses of Unpredictability (Part 2)

6/18/2017

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In part one, we began to explore the President’s predilection for unpredictability as a negotiating tactic. Using his example, we have so far uncovered little practical use, but some ominous concerns, for our own negotiations - at least as a bump-and-run tool to generate quick wins. Happily, for most of us our dealings are longer term. Might the President's concept of what I've called Randomly Unpredictable Behavior give you an edge in deals that are worked out over time?
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Part 2: The President Tweaks the Australians.

This time, we start by making you the King. And I hereby christen you NOT one of them fully tethered, tamed and enlightened constitutional monarchs, but a good old school, covetous, self-centered divine-right-of-kings type King. Next, let’s say you, as King, want something, and you want it bad. But you've got no good argument for having it. So, instead of mounting an argument, you go all unpredictable. You make odd demands, you backtrack on prior concessions. You might become aloof, or imperious, or incoherent, or even threatening. If you're in a power position, the other side may just decide - quite reasonably, by the way - that it's wiser to take what they've got in hand rather than face a worsening situation. I've called this Studied Pre-Emptive Bait-Cutting. They cut bait, you win...

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Trump as Negotiator: On the Uses of Unpredictability (Part 1)

6/17/2017

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Our forefathers invested considerable effort constructing an economy – indeed a world – that aspires to predictability. Rule of Law, property rights, a man’s word is his bond, and all that. Is it possible in this new century that introducing a flourish of the unpredictable – as President Trump plans to do on our behalf - can augment negotiating success, either on the global stage or in your own personal dealings? Probably not.
Part 1: The President Tweaks the Chinese

President Trump has promised to bring a businessman’s acumen to negotiating globally on behalf of the American people. In particular he has emphasized one key innovation he plans to introduce: Unpredictability. Leaving aside the question of whether in announcing your intention to be unpredictable you can actually be unpredictable, let’s just note that such an approach would run pretty much counter to the fundamental emphasis on stability, cooperation and development that has been the hallmark of American foreign policy negotiation in the post-World War Two era. After all, consider the acronym for our nuclear policy vis-à-vis the Soviets: MAD. Right there, right in the middle, it includes the word “Assured.” If you shoot something at us, we’ll shoot something back at you. Count on it. Predictable.

So if the foundation of our negotiating style in the American Century was predictability, is it possible that being unpredictable could have its uses in a freshly globalized 21st century? Is it a tool for us to claw back some of what we conceded away over the last 75 years as we put the world back on its footing, served as its policeman, defended liberty and stuff like that? And what about us as ordinary folk? If it’s a technique useful on the grand scale, maybe it could serve as a potent addition to our own negotiating toolsets. Let us consider then, when, if ever, you might benefit from being less predictable in your own personal and professional dealings.

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We start by considering “negotiation by other means”- that is, war...​

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Persuasion & Negotiation

6/16/2017

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Welcome

6/15/2017

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Coming soon.
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    The Persuasive Blog

    This is where Persuasive Under Pressure meets the world and proves its mettle against the issues of the day. Here we establish how decision-making driven by calm + an understanding of the nature of human nature under conflict + solid persuasive skills leads to solutions that are at once unexpected and common-sensical. And highly communicable. Attractive even.


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